3 OTT 2024 · It’s true, man does not live by bread alone. But when the choice is between higher salaries and better professional opportunities on one side, and a good quality of life with a rich cultural and artistic offer on the other, young Italians tend to prefer the former.
This is, in a nutshell, the result of a study conducted by the Fondazione Nord-Est in collaboration with the Veneto Region. The aim was to understand the dynamics behind the departures that lead thousands of Italians to leave the country every year. The analysis was recently published in a book titled "Young People and the Choice to Move Abroad. Propensity and Motivation." The Numbers of the Exodus
The starting point of the study was an observation of the data: between 2011 and 2021, 451,000 Italians aged 18 to 34 packed their bags and moved abroad. Some returned, but the migration balance between departures and returns was negative by over 300,000 people (-317,042).
The Covid pandemic period (2020-2021) saw a slowdown in youth emigration, which then returned to pre-pandemic levels. “In 2022 and 2023,” notes the Foundation, “nearly 100,000 young Italians left the country, while only just over 37,000 returned. From 2011 to 2023 (thirteen years), the total number of registry cancellations for emigration amounted to 550,000, compared to 172,000 re-registrations (returns), for a negative balance of 378,000 people.” These figures should actually be tripled due to the systematic underestimation of the phenomenon, as many who emigrate do not register with AIRE (the registry for Italians abroad) and continue to be recorded as residents in Italy. The Lack of Replacement
Another aspect highlighted by the study, focusing on Northern Italy, is the difficulty in attracting qualified foreign talent. Looking at the numbers of “exchanges” with the six main destinations of Italian emigration—United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands—for every young person from these countries who chooses to move to Northern Italy, more than seven young Italians from the North make the reverse journey.
“In a world that speaks of a ‘war for talent’ or brain circulation,” the report points out, “Northern Italy, usually praised for its attractiveness compared to the South, appears like a bottle without a stopper, tilted downward. In ten years, the percentage of university graduates among those leaving has doubled, and the percentage of high school graduates has increased by seventeen points.”
The immigration of young people from non-EU countries is not enough to offset the outflow and consequent loss of human capital, “due to the different levels of education.” Why Do They Leave?
Based on these premises, the research center sought to delve deeper into the motivations driving young people to leave Northern Italy (the richest area of the country) and those that keep others from leaving. To do so, they conducted a double survey (comprising polls, targeted interviews, and focus groups), gathering opinions and feedback from people aged 18 to 34 across the North, some of whom had emigrated, while others had chosen to stay.
A comparison of the responses helps to clarify why people leave. For example, compared to those who stayed, those who emigrated see their future as richer in opportunities and more directly related to their own efforts.
Among those who haven’t (yet) left, a factor that could change their minds is the perceived lack of meritocracy, coupled with a shortage of professional growth opportunities. These are the aspects that most drive those living here to consider leaving. The same applies to international openness, which is deemed insufficient. As a result, one in three young people living in Northern Italy envisions their near future, within a three-year horizon, outside Italy, precisely because the world beyond our country is seen as offering more career opportunities.
Both groups positively assess the quality of life (especially healthcare and the university system) and the cultural and artistic offerings of Italy, which are among the few elements that could entice emigrants to return. Among these, family stands out as the primary factor for a potential return. However, only 16% of expatriates say they can see themselves living in Italy in the next three years, “thus creating in the North,” comments the Fondazione Nord-Est, “a void of human capital, innovation potential, and economic and social growth that is difficult to fill.” Wasted Resources
In addition to this loss in terms of skills and expertise, there is also a financial drain resulting from the departure of graduates, linked to the investments in education (both public and by families) made up to the point of earning a university degree. For Veneto alone, the cost is estimated at around 900 million euros for the two-year period 2021-2022. This figure rises to 12.5 billion euros when considering the period from 2011 to 2023. These resources have benefited other countries better able to capitalize on the talents we have trained.