Rigetti Computing: 2026 Roadmap and Commercial Performance Analysis
26 mar 2026 ·
52 min. 51 sec.
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Descrizione
The global quantum computing (QC) market is currently experiencing robust growth, with its value estimated at US$848 million in 2023. This sector is projected to expand at an annual rate...
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The global quantum computing (QC) market is currently experiencing robust growth, with its value estimated at US$848 million in 2023. This sector is projected to expand at an annual rate of 22.1%, reaching a total market value of US$1.5 billion by 2026. This upward trajectory is driven by a maturing supplier base that is adopting a traditional revenue-based financial profile, moving away from early research-only stages. In 2021, 32% of surveyed companies reported no revenues, but by 2023, that figure had dropped to 11%.Market Segmentation and Access ModelsBy 2026, the market is expected to be defined by a mix of on-premises and cloud-based solutions:
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- Hardware: The global hardware market is expected to account for approximately 30.4% of the total sector, reaching roughly US$469 million in 2026.
- Cloud Dominance: Cloud service provider (CSP) interactions—including hardware, software, and end-user access—are anticipated to account for 48.1% of all QC revenues. End-user access via the cloud remains the preferred hardware access method, projected to represent 50% of how users interact with quantum systems.
- On-premises: Total on-premises revenues, including hardware and professional services, are forecasted to be worth about US$485 million.
- Research and Development: R&D for quantum technology itself remains the most attractive sector, chosen by approximately half of industry respondents.
- Chemicals/Chemistry: This sector has risen to become the second most attractive area for quantum applications.
- Finance and Cybersecurity: Financial services remain a major focus, though they have recently slipped from the top spot to third. Cybersecurity continues to be a perennial favorite due to its critical nature.
- Technical Progress: One leading firm recently achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity on a prototype platform and is scaling its architecture using a modular "chiplet" approach, which allows for tiling multiple chips to increase qubit counts.
- Roadmaps: Industry leaders are targeting the launch of 150-qubit systems in 2026 and aiming for 1,000-qubit systems by 2027. Reaching "quantum advantage"—where quantum systems demonstrably outperform classical ones—is generally expected to require at least 1,000 qubits, 99.9% gate fidelity, and real-time error correction.
- International Adoption: There is a growing trend toward sovereign quantum investments. For example, India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing recently placed an US$8.4 million order for a 108-qubit on-premises system. Similarly, South Korea's National Quantum Computing Center of Excellence plans to integrate a 100-qubit system into its supercomputing infrastructure.
- Financial Health: Some pure-play companies have entered 2026 with strong balance sheets, reporting cash reserves exceeding US$600 million, providing a strategic buffer against the "lumpy" and uneven nature of government and research contracts.
- Quantum Winter: Concerns regarding a "quantum winter"—defined as a significant multi-year decline in R&D investment—are waning. Approximately 42% of industry participants now view such a downturn as unlikely.
- Competition for Attention: The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) and generative AI is seen as a potential distraction. About 42% of respondents believe these technologies could draw end-user interest and budget away from quantum computing in the near term.
- Efficiency Drivers: Beyond performance gains, quantum computers are viewed as a potential solution to the massive energy requirements of modern GPU-based classical systems, as they can theoretically solve complex problems at a fraction of the power consumption.
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Informazioni
| Autore | Norse Studio |
| Organizzazione | Norse Studio |
| Sito | - |
| Tag |
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