The Daily is a 100% reader-supported newsletter. We fight for democracy and freedom while discussing topics that big media often ignore. Please support our work by becoming a subscriber.Understanding Where The Presidential Election Stands Right NowThere is so much data flying around as the election is less than two months away that it is helpful to condense some of it and place it in a more understandable form.The video above is part of a series that we’ll be doing through election day titled Mapping It Out. The video contains some different points than this post, and you get to see the maps a little more easily so give it a look.Our first map shows why Pennsylvania is the key to this election. The map is not what I think will happen but what would happen if every state followed their historical pattern. Trump ends up leading in the Electoral College 262-257.That is the scenario that Trump is hoping for. (All maps done on 270toWin.com):Here is our map of the top three swing states, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. A lot of other states get lumped into this category, but these three are the ones that are consistently the closest, and both campaigns have made Pennsylvania the epicenter of the race. Michigan wasn’t included because since Harris entered the race, the state has become a bigger challenge for Trump, so his campaign is putting more time into Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.Democrats lead 257-235 and need to win any one of those states to win the White House.This is closer to the reality of where the election is now.Our third map shows what would happen if each state followed its historical voting trend. Pennsylvania goes for Harris, and Democrats win the House with 276 Electoral College Votes. Most of the current swing states are not as swingy as the media likes to suggest. North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona have voted Democratic once since 2000. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have voted Republican once since 2000. The nation is in the middle of a demographic shift, so things will change, but just looking strictly at history, states have been fairly consistent.Our last map is what I call our today most likely scenario, The Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan stays together as it has in every election since 1988. Georgia, where Trump has consistently led, and Republicans are doing everything to hand him the state, narrowly flips back to being red, but North Carolina, where there is a gubernatorial race that Democrats lead by double digits on this map, goes blue for the first time since 2008. Kari Lake and the Arizona Senate weigh Trump down a tad, and Harris narrowly keeps Arizona blue. After all of the twists and turns of the 2024 election, Democrats end up with roughly the same total of electoral college votes that they got in 2020 (303 vs 306 in 2020) and keep the White House.As new data comes in, I’ll be here to Map It Out and show you where this election is heading.What do you think of our new feature? If you have any questions, leave them in the comments, and I’ll answer them in a future episode.

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