Predicting the Where, Not the When: Inside the New Earthquake Breakthrough

Can we map exactly where the next massive earthquake will strike? UC Riverside geophysicists Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat have developed a GPS-based algorithm that does just that. But why are we still so vulnerable?

In this episode, we dive into a groundbreaking seismic discovery from the University of California, Riverside. Geoprofessors Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat have created a new algorithm utilizing high-precision GPS measurements of subtle ground movements to identify locked fault zones (asperities) silently accumulating strain. The method proved its immense potential by pinpointing the exact rupture zone of the massive Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake in Russia before it struck.
However, there is a crucial limitation: the technology can tell us where the earth will rip, but not when. We explore the massive gaps in our offshore monitoring networks where the most dangerous faults lie, and the harsh reality of urban vulnerability. For instance, in Riverside, California, 76% of the housing stock was built before 1990, meaning millions of homes do not meet modern seismic building codes. We also touch upon geologist Nic Barth's study of New Zealand's Alpine Fault, proving how the direction of an earthquake's rupture dictates its path of destruction.

#EarthquakePrediction #Seismology #TectonicPlates #UCRiverside #GPSTracking #KamchatkaEarthquake #AlpineFault #SeismicSafety #DisasterPreparedness #FaultCreep


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This episode includes AI-generated content.