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Welcome to The Property Trio!

Formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor, we've rebranded!

We are proud to be bringing your regular episodes to your podcast feed with our newest musketeer, Mike Mortlock. Cate and Dave decided to throw Mike in at the deep end with his first hosting gig, and he didn't disappoint. The Trio reflected on the March data and in particular, the question on everyone's minds;

Has the market turned, or is this a dead cat bounce?

Dave and Cate are both confident that our market strength is sustainable, however Mike chimes in with some context around the quantum of the rebound for the month of March. Cate makes a point about the impact of buyer confidence, (and acceptance) of the rate increases, particularly now that it's evident the rate increases are easing, inflationary pressures are reducing and skill migrant arrival numbers are climbing. "It's refinancing gold rush times at the moment", says Mike. "I think double digit growth isn't out of the question."

The Trio crack straight into the data as follows.

1. Monthly Data - Sydney rebounded strongly with 1.4% growth in one month, and Dave brings market segments and price points to light when he shares that the upper quartiles are the highest performing price segments for the eastern capitals. Dave highlights the separation between Perth, Hobart, Darwin and the other capitals. The Trio canvas the accuracy of some of the most skilled economists and the reliability of their projections and Mike touches on the difficulties of predicting price.
2. Peak to troughs - The sea change/tree change movement is obvious in this following table, and the trio but the March uptick signals a recovery in the regions also. Despite the fact that many of our cities are plagued by low stock supply, we have this to thank for placing a floor under price falls. Cate touches on the elasticity she's seeing, however when it comes to Lockdown Escapees returning to the city.
3. Sales volumes are down - Dave shares an interesting thought; the number of sales as a function of total dwellings are diminishing. From stamp duty avoidance to low confidence, and also taking into account the insufficient options for prospective vendors to choose from, our market forces are not conducive to vendor listing activity. Dave predicts a listing rebound in the Spring months of 2023.
4. Dave confirms the high demand (and activity) for refinancing is evident in the data and at his coalface - it seems refinancing activity is a hallmark of 2023.
5. Rents... Mike shares a scary news item - he read about a rental provider advertising a tent inside his living room for rent. Looking at the rate of change for rents, almost every capital city except for Canberra is exhibiting frightening rates of rental growth. Brisbane is an interesting case to ponder, particularly following the repealed land tax changes and the impact it had on investors. Mike quotes one of our Property Professor's pieces of wisdom dating back to August last year. "Rents have grown at only half the rate of inflation for the past decade. With inflation at over 25% for the decade, and yet the property rental growth average sitting at 11%, the trio ponder the concept that rents are just playing catch up.
6. Sentiment - Mike highlights bond yields and the correlation with sentiment and ponders whether the consumer sentiment figures are actually indicating a rebound. Cate suggests that a dose of YOLO (you only live once) combined with added lockdown savings have delayed the intended impact of the RBA's rate increases. Note we have since sourced an updated April Westpac Consumer Sentiment chart to overlay with the previous March chart discussed on the show.
7. And... our gold nuggets! The Property Planner: Dave feels that late last year was indeed the best time to buy and he notes the markets are broadly in recovery mode now, and Mike agrees with him. The Property Buyer: For any upgraders who are feeling disconcerted by the lack of housing options to pursue, they should consider a long, (or flexible) settlement period to give themselves time to shop.

Shownotes: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-property-trio/id1476039942